The Yankees had a chance to sweep the Subway Series (June 8-10) at Citi Field on Sunday Night Baseball with Luis Severino on the mound going up against Seth Lugo who was given the ball when Noah Syndergaard was scratched earlier in the week due to a finger issue. On paper this looked like a sure win when you consider that Luis Severino had not lost a game since April, and the Mets had not won a game since May. The Yankees had already beaten deGrom & won the game started by Matz (Swarzak took loss). Well, the Yanks were blanked for the first time this season (the last mlb team to be shutout) 2-0 by Lugo and the Met bullpen. Severino made one mistake, but Todd Frazier made him pay, stroking a 5th inning 2R HR to left-center for the only scoring by either team in the game. So, Severino suffered his first loss since April 10th, and the Mets got their first win since May 30th.
As John Sterling likes to say .. ” You can’t predict baseball Suzyn”.
Looking back on the series a few trends jumped out at me. Yankee starting pitching took another hit. Tanaka pulled hamstring muscles in both legs running the bases, sending him to the DL. This in addition to #5 starter Jordan Montgomery already going down for the season due to TJ surgery. The need for the Yankees to trade for a top starter has become more of a glaring need if the Bombers want to make a big postseason run. But that’s not the only issue with thoughts of striving for postseason success. The Yanks are becoming more and more dependent on the HR recently. Gardner hit a huge 8th inning 2R Hr to beat deGrom, and Torres & Andujar homered in game 2 as Matz blew a 3-0 lead, but other than that there has been next to no situational hitting. Of the last 19 runs they have scored, 18 runs have come on home runs. Sanchez continues to be mired in a deep slump, but it is not just him. Half the line-up has struggled recently, including Bird, Stanton & Didi. What frustrates me is shrinking batting averages by almost everyone in the line-up. For example, Aaron Judge had a .337 B.A. in April, .266 B.A. in May, and has a .129 B.A. in June. I believe in the good old “Batting Average” stat, even though the new age stat-guys don’t. They are flat-out wrong to devalue it. Last year the World Series winning Houston Astros lead the majors with a .282 team batting average. The Yankees rank 1st in HR (103) but rank 10th in batting avg (.252), and I cringe when I hear first-year manager Aaron Boone say that he doesn’t care about BA. This is part of the problem. Boone & Management promote the HR to excess, and conversely tend to overlook the importance of situational hitting. Boone made a comment when asked about low batting average that he is more concerned about on-base % . Ok, let’s go back to the BA numbers I gave you for Judge and add in on-base % …
Aaron Judge:
April .337 B.A. / .478 On-Base%
May .266 B.A. / .389 On-Base%
June .129 B.A. / .200 On-Base%
You are probably sitting there reading these stats in amazement thinking why have I not realized the drop-off is this significant? It is because his total HR & RBI production are good. That is fine, but in the postseason, when home runs are less prevalent , batting average and On-Base% becomes more important (Judge batted .188 B.A. last postseason) A perfect example of what I am preaching is the career of Derek Jeter. “Captain Clutch” had a career regular season .310 Batting Average & a .309 BA in the postseason. Even more impressive, “Mr. November” had a .321 BA in the World Series. Why the consistency in Jeter’s play? Because he ALWAYS hit to all fields and loved to shoot the ball to the opposite field. And although Judge is a power hitter he has a similar approach … at times. Consider this, last year Judge hit .329 from the start of the season all the way through mid July’s All-Star Break. After the ASG he hit .228. He became more top hand dominant in the 2nd half, along with a slightly more upper cut swing. If you recall Jeter always had a level swing. In fact his practice swings were on a downward plane. The biggest difference between Judge’s 1st & 2nd half last year was that he “stayed inside” every fastball in the 1st half, but started pulling fastballs in the 2nd half. Judge needs to not get caught up in all the HR Hoopla & stay committed to the approach that will allow him to hit for power AND average. He should just think … what would Jeter do ?
To sum things up, the Yankees will need to go outside the organization to find a top of the rotation starter in a trade, but when it comes to their hitting woes, all they need to do is re-focus their attention to having a more balanced approach at the plate. Too many power hitters have become pull-happy (not just Sanchez) and have been allowed to continue to do-so by Aaron Boone & hitting coach Marcus Thames. In their defense, they are doing what Yankee Management and analytics department are advising them. I will say simply what needs to happen.. the Yankees need to think “up-the-middle”, they need to “use the big part of the field”, go “gap-to-gap”, and drive that outside pitch to the opposite field instead of pulling off the ball and waving at outside pitches as I’ve seen recently over & over. One bit of good news regarding this is the fact that the Yankees now come home for a nine game home-stand, and the short porch in Right-field usually helps the Righty bats think about hitting the ball to the opposite field, especially …. AARON JUDGE.
Remember what I always say .. “Opposites Attract”.
As always,
GO NYY !!
