When I analyze a starting pitcher, one of the first things I look for is the difference in velocity from the highest to lowest velocity pitch in his repertoire.
Obviously, command of the strike-zone, different types of pitches, and movement (especially late-life) are key, but in my opinion .. the overall variance in speed is a huge factor, and for the most part many times overlooked by the Yankees.
What I have noticed is that almost all elite starters have a difference of at least 13 mph (some as much as 20 mph) difference from their FB to slowest off-speed. Also, the slowest pitch is many times in the low 80’s or even as slow as 70 mph.
Here are some examples (FanGraphs )
STEPHEN STRASBURG :
Career stats show FB avg 95.1 mph – CB 81.2 mph . A difference of 13.9 mph
| Season | Team | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% | KN% | XX% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Nationals | 57.8% (97.3) | 25.5% (82.4) | 16.7% (89.7) | 1.1% | ||||
| 2011 | Nationals | 73.4% (95.8) | 13.5% (79.5) | 13.1% (89.1) | 0.3% | ||||
| 2012 | Nationals | 64.9% (95.7) | 19.0% (80.6) | 16.1% (88.8) | 0.0% | ||||
| 2013 | Nationals | 61.0% (95.3) | 22.9% (80.0) | 16.1% (88.1) | 0.2% | ||||
| 2014 | Nationals | 60.9% (94.8) | 1.4% (86.4) | 17.2% (79.9) | 20.5% (88.2) | 0.4% | |||
| 2015 | Nationals | 63.4% (95.4) | 0.5% (89.6) | 22.4% (81.9) | 13.7% (88.4) | 0.1% | |||
| 2016 | Nationals | 57.2% (94.9) | 17.1% (89.2) | 12.6% (81.5) | 13.1% (88.8) | 0.2% | |||
| 2017 | Nationals | 51.9% (95.6) | 6.8% (90.2) | 22.5% (82.4) | 18.9% (88.7) | 0.7% | |||
| 2018 | Nationals | 51.9% (94.5) | 8.6% (87.7) | 19.6% (81.7) | 19.9% (88.1) | 0.3% | |||
| 2019 | Nationals | 48.3% (93.9) | 0.4% (87.9) | 30.6% (81.3) | 20.7% (87.8) | 0.5% | |||
| Total | – – – | 57.4% (95.1) | 3.7% (88.9) | 21.3% (81.2) | 17.6% (88.4) | 0.3% |
GERRIT COLE :
When you look at Cole’s career pitch types you see his FB averaged 96.1 , and his Curve Ball career avg. is 82.3 mph. That’s a difference of 13.8. It is interesting to note that Gerrit’s FB velocity went up when he got to Houston, where he took his game to another level. In 2019 his FB avg. was 97.2 mph and his slowest off-speed pitch was his curve ball at 82.6. That creates a speed differential of 14.6 mph.
| Season | Team | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% | KN% | XX% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Pirates | 64.8% (96.1) | 15.0% (89.1) | 12.4% (83.4) | 7.8% (88.0) | 0.1% | |||
| 2014 | Pirates | 66.7% (95.5) | 12.1% (86.5) | 16.2% (83.7) | 5.0% (86.8) | 0.2% | |||
| 2015 | Pirates | 67.1% (95.6) | 21.2% (87.1) | 8.0% (81.7) | 3.6% (88.2) | 0.2% | |||
| 2016 | Pirates | 66.7% (95.2) | 17.9% (87.7) | 10.0% (81.1) | 5.4% (88.1) | 0.6% | |||
| 2017 | Pirates | 60.1% (96.0) | 17.2% (88.3) | 12.2% (80.4) | 10.5% (88.7) | 0.2% | |||
| 2018 | Astros | 56.3% (96.6) | 19.9% (88.8) | 19.3% (82.5) | 4.5% (87.8) | ||||
| 2019 | Astros | 54.0% (97.2) | 23.2% (89.3) | 15.4% (82.6) | 7.4% (88.6) | ||||
| Total | – – – | 61.4% (96.1) | 18.7% (88.2) | 13.5% (82.3) | 6.4% (88.2) | 0.1% |
Zack Greinke: Zack is an excellent example.His career speed differential is 19.0 mph! Greinke’s FB avg. velocity id 91.9 mph, his slowest velocity pitch is his curve ball at a career average 72.9 mph. And check out his 2019 velocity for his curve … 70.2 mph !!
| Season | Team | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% | KN% | XX% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Royals | 56.1% (89.1) | 10.2% (82.6) | 3.0% (85.6) | 18.4% (70.6) | 12.2% (78.6) | 9.2% | ||
| 2005 | Royals | 62.8% (89.8) | 10.2% (81.8) | 0.7% (85.6) | 15.4% (72.0) | 11.0% (80.9) | 6.7% | ||
| 2006 | Royals | 49.4% (92.8) | 28.9% (87.0) | 8.4% (77.6) | 13.3% (85.4) | 11.7% | |||
| 2007 | Royals | 66.2% (94.0) | 19.1% (84.7) | 7.5% (77.1) | 7.2% (84.0) | 2.2% | |||
| 2008 | Royals | 61.5% (93.3) | 18.8% (85.3) | 12.0% (74.4) | 7.7% (82.0) | 1.5% | |||
| 2009 | Royals | 59.4% (93.7) | 20.2% (86.1) | 14.3% (73.8) | 6.1% (84.1) | 1.5% | |||
| 2010 | Royals | 60.7% (93.5) | 15.5% (86.9) | 10.7% (74.3) | 13.0% (85.2) | 1.2% | |||
| 2011 | Brewers | 56.0% (92.5) | 18.7% (84.5) | 16.8% (73.1) | 8.5% (84.9) | ||||
| 2012 | 2 Teams | 52.6% (92.4) | 13.3% (83.2) | 10.7% (89.3) | 16.7% (73.4) | 6.6% (85.6) | 0.1% | ||
| 2013 | Dodgers | 55.1% (91.7) | 2.7% (82.2) | 17.1% (86.4) | 12.9% (72.8) | 12.2% (86.5) | 0.2% | ||
| 2014 | Dodgers | 53.8% (91.9) | 19.4% (84.9) | 10.4% (71.9) | 16.5% (87.2) | 0.2% | |||
| 2015 | Dodgers | 50.7% (91.8) | 19.3% (86.9) | 9.1% (73.6) | 20.9% (88.5) | 0.1% | |||
| 2016 | Diamondbacks | 48.2% (91.3) | 20.6% (85.3) | 10.4% (74.5) | 20.8% (87.7) | 0.4% | |||
| 2017 | Diamondbacks | 48.2% (91.0) | 22.6% (84.2) | 13.3% (74.1) | 15.8% (87.4) | ||||
| 2018 | Diamondbacks | 48.7% (89.6) | 17.2% (83.4) | 13.4% (70.5) | 20.8% (86.6) | 0.3% | |||
| 2019 | 2 Teams | 46.5% (90.0) | 16.1% (83.7) | 15.4% (70.2) | 22.1% (87.3) | 0.2% | |||
| Total | – – – | 54.9% (91.9) | 16.4% (84.8) | 2.1% (87.5) | 13.1% (72.9) | 13.5% (86.0) | 1.4% |
Chris Sale: Career average .. Fast Ball 93.6 – Slider 79.3 mph. Differential = 14.3 mph.
| Season | Team | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% | KN% | XX% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | White Sox | 62.8% (96.3) | 29.7% (82.8) | 7.4% (87.1) | 0.5% | ||||
| 2011 | White Sox | 51.9% (95.3) | 36.4% (82.1) | 11.7% (86.8) | 1.2% | ||||
| 2012 | White Sox | 60.1% (91.6) | 26.2% (78.6) | 13.7% (82.1) | 0.6% | ||||
| 2013 | White Sox | 51.4% (93.1) | 29.6% (78.5) | 19.0% (82.8) | 0.2% | ||||
| 2014 | White Sox | 52.9% (93.8) | 18.4% (79.8) | 28.6% (84.7) | 0.2% | ||||
| 2015 | White Sox | 52.5% (94.5) | 19.8% (78.9) | 27.7% (85.8) | |||||
| 2016 | White Sox | 59.2% (92.8) | 24.9% (78.6) | 0.1% (75.0) | 15.7% (85.8) | 0.2% | |||
| 2017 | Red Sox | 49.2% (94.4) | 32.9% (79.7) | 17.9% (86.6) | |||||
| 2018 | Red Sox | 50.2% (94.7) | 34.5% (79.8) | 15.3% (86.9) | |||||
| 2019 | Red Sox | 46.4% (93.2) | 38.4% (79.0) | 15.2% (85.2) | 0.0% | ||||
| Total | – – – | 53.1% (93.6) | 28.2% (79.3) | 0.0% (75.0) | 18.7% (85.1) | 0.2% |
| Season | Team | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% | KN% | XX% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Diamondbacks | 72.5% (94.2) | 17.0% (84.4) | 10.5% (84.7) | 0.6% | ||||
| 2009 | Diamondbacks | 71.0% (93.6) | 12.4% (85.0) | 16.7% (84.3) | 0.7% | ||||
| 2010 | Tigers | 65.0% (93.1) | 15.2% (84.1) | 19.8% (83.5) | 1.3% | ||||
| 2011 | Tigers | 61.4% (93.1) | 18.3% (82.7) | 20.3% (82.5) | 0.4% | ||||
| 2012 | Tigers | 60.8% (94.2) | 19.5% (85.7) | 19.7% (85.5) | 0.4% | ||||
| 2013 | Tigers | 56.0% (93.3) | 15.2% (85.1) | 7.8% (77.9) | 20.9% (84.7) | 0.0% | |||
| 2014 | Tigers | 55.1% (92.8) | 13.6% (84.9) | 10.3% (77.4) | 21.0% (83.9) | 0.2% | |||
| 2015 | Nationals | 59.4% (94.2) | 18.8% (86.2) | 0.6% (89.5) | 8.1% (79.6) | 13.2% (84.9) | 0.2% | ||
| 2016 | Nationals | 55.4% (94.3) | 22.2% (86.2) | 2.3% (88.9) | 8.0% (77.9) | 12.1% (85.3) | 0.2% | ||
| 2017 | Nationals | 48.7% (94.1) | 28.9% (86.2) | 8.3% (77.4) | 14.1% (84.7) | 0.2% | |||
| 2018 | Nationals | 50.3% (94.4) | 16.4% (85.2) | 9.8% (88.6) | 7.7% (78.4) | 15.7% (84.0) | 0.3% | ||
| 2019 | Nationals | 48.3% (94.9) | 20.5% (85.6) | 8.1% (89.8) | 8.7% (78.6) | 14.5% (84.3) | 0.3% | ||
| Total | – – – | 57.8% (93.8) | 18.2% (85.3) | 1.8% (89.1) | 5.3% (78.1) | 17.0% (84.3) | 0.4% |
Justin Verlander: Career avg. Fast Ball 94.4 mph- Curve 79.6 mph Differential = 14.8 mph
| Season | Team | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% | KN% | XX% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Tigers | 64.4% (95.5) | 0.6% (81.0) | 22.2% (78.3) | 12.8% (80.9) | 1.1% | |||
| 2006 | Tigers | 66.7% (95.1) | 16.1% (78.4) | 17.2% (81.8) | 1.4% | ||||
| 2007 | Tigers | 62.3% (94.8) | 18.9% (80.2) | 18.8% (82.7) | 1.4% | ||||
| 2008 | Tigers | 63.6% (93.6) | 20.6% (81.0) | 15.8% (83.7) | 1.8% | ||||
| 2009 | Tigers | 67.9% (95.6) | 2.3% (87.9) | 19.9% (80.3) | 9.9% (84.1) | 2.3% | |||
| 2010 | Tigers | 58.6% (95.4) | 6.9% (87.2) | 19.6% (79.6) | 14.9% (85.7) | 1.2% | |||
| 2011 | Tigers | 57.0% (95.0) | 8.4% (85.9) | 18.3% (79.3) | 16.3% (86.4) | 0.0% | |||
| 2012 | Tigers | 55.9% (94.3) | 11.9% (84.4) | 14.9% (79.2) | 17.3% (85.5) | 0.2% | |||
| 2013 | Tigers | 56.0% (93.3) | 13.2% (86.0) | 13.9% (79.0) | 16.9% (84.0) | 0.1% | |||
| 2014 | Tigers | 55.8% (92.3) | 15.1% (85.6) | 15.9% (79.1) | 13.2% (83.4) | 0.1% | |||
| 2015 | Tigers | 58.6% (92.8) | 16.5% (85.8) | 15.6% (79.5) | 9.2% (84.3) | 0.1% | |||
| 2016 | Tigers | 57.3% (93.5) | 18.3% (88.0) | 15.9% (78.7) | 8.5% (85.3) | 0.1% | |||
| 2017 | 2 Teams | 58.2% (95.2) | 21.6% (88.2) | 0.2% (91.7) | 15.9% (80.5) | 4.0% (87.5) | 0.4% | ||
| 2018 | Astros | 61.2% (95.1) | 22.2% (86.5) | 0.6% (91.2) | 14.4% (79.6) | 1.5% (87.4) | |||
| 2019 | Astros | 49.9% (94.7) | 28.4% (87.6) | 17.5% (79.5) | 4.2% (87.0) | ||||
| Total | – – – | 59.2% (94.4) | 11.7% (86.8) | 0.1% (91.3) | 17.0% (79.6) | 12.1% (84.5) | 0.7% |
So .. when you look at Strasburg, Cole, Greinke, Sale, Scherzer & Verlander above and you take the career average stats of those 6 elite pitchers, which is a large-sample-size based on an average career of 11.6 years here is what you come up with ..
Average Career Fast Ball = 94.30 mph
Avg Career slowest off-speed = 78.95 mph
Avg. Career speed differential = 15.35 mph
All 6 elite pitchers have been-to or won the World Series in the last 3 seasons. Interesting to note that other than Strasburg they all were acquired via FA or Trades in the last five seasons. Pitching, specifically elite pitching, and in this case, elite starting pitching wins championships.
Now, let’s take a look at 2 top-of-the-rotation starters for the Yankees that were relied-on for much of the decade that just ended ..
Michael Pineda: Career Average FB = 93.5mph – Slider 84.9 mph
Differential = 8.6 mph
| Season | Team | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% | KN% | XX% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Mariners | 62.2% (94.7) | 31.5% (84.1) | 6.3% (87.6) | 0.3% | ||||
| 2014 | Yankees | 55.2% (92.5) | 34.0% (83.9) | 10.8% (87.7) | 0.1% | ||||
| 2015 | Yankees | 54.1% (92.8) | 34.5% (85.6) | 11.5% (88.2) | |||||
| 2016 | Yankees | 51.3% (94.1) | 41.3% (85.6) | 7.4% (88.3) | 0.1% | ||||
| 2017 | Yankees | 48.8% (93.9) | 37.6% (85.1) | 13.6% (89.0) | 0.1% | ||||
| 2019 | Twins | 55.3% (92.6) | 29.6% (83.9) | 15.1% (87.2) | 0.3% | ||||
| Total | – – – | 54.8% (93.5) | 34.9% (84.9) | 10.3% (88.0) | 0.2% |
Luis Severino: Career Average FB = 97.1 mph – Change-Up 87.9 mph
Differential = 9.2 mph
| Season | Team | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% | KN% | XX% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Yankees | 51.6% (95.3) | 34.2% (89.3) | 14.1% (88.0) | |||||
| 2016 | Yankees | 55.9% (96.1) | 34.2% (88.3) | 9.9% (88.9) | 0.4% | ||||
| 2017 | Yankees | 51.4% (97.6) | 35.1% (88.4) | 13.5% (87.3) | |||||
| 2018 | Yankees | 50.4% (97.6) | 36.0% (88.1) | 13.5% (88.1) | |||||
| 2019 | Yankees | 56.6% (96.1) | 26.9% (84.1) | 16.4% (88.3) | |||||
| Total | – – – | 51.9% (97.1) | 35.0% (88.3) | 13.1% (87.9) | 0.1% |
When you compare the average speed differential of the 6 Elite pitchers ..
94.30 mph Fast Ball
78.95 mph Slowest Off-speed
15.35 mph Difference
and compare it to the average of “Pinederino”
95.30 mph Fast Ball ( 1mph better/faster than the Elites)
86.4 mph Slowest Off-speed ( ** compared to 78.95 above ** )
8.9 mph Difference (** compared to 15.35 mph above **)
**You now know why I wrote the most amount of columns on my website dedicated to this subject !! **
