Well it is exactly the half way point of the 2015 baseball season, and the Yankees first half was
… half and half. Half good / Half disappointing. A half season full of ups and downs.
Losing and winning streaks …sloppy and slick fielding … power hitting and anemic hitting … solid pitching and shaky pitching.
It is not hard to look at the glass …
HALF FULL
There are plenty of positives.
First off … they are in 1st Place ! They lead a very tight AL East Division, where 2 games separate the Yanks, O’s, Blue Jays & Rays.
The team record in games where they lead after 8 innings is 42-0, and the Bullpen is the teams greatest strength so far.
There is no quit in the 2015 Yankees, and the team chemistry appears to be excellent (and that is important).
At the half way point there are a number of players exceeding, and in some cases, far exceeding expectations ..
GARDNER, TEIXEIRA , AROD, MCCANN, YOUNG, ELLSBURY (before the DL)
BETANCES, WARREN, SHREVE, MILLER (before the DL)
Speaking of the DL , its not hard to look at the glass …
HALF EMPTY
By far the the biggest disappointment was Masahiro Tanaka going on the Disabled List .. after only 4 starts, with forearm soreness (again) and wrist tendonitis (first time).
As someone who hoped that Tanaka and the Yankees had decided to have his torn elbow ligament surgically repaired, when it happened a year ago in July 2014,
it’s frustrating to hear the team continue to say that the DL stint had nothing to do with the torn UCL in his elbow.
Whether or not Tanaka should have had the TJ surgery can be debated, but what is not debatable is that losing your Ace after 4 starts is a huge set-back.
Add to that the wrist tendonitis could possibly be a sign that he is trying to compensate for the elbow by altering his pitching mechanics which could compound the problem, and jeopardize his future.
Indirectly Tanaka not being in the starting rotation, added to the bullpen being overworked early. Adam Warren was taken from his 7th inning role and inserted as the number 5 starter when Capuano went down,
and although Betances and Miller proved to be a dominant and unhittable late inning tandem, Miller went on the DL with forearm soreness (overuse?..hard to say)
When you take into account Ellsbury going down with an injury behind his knee … the Yankees lost their Ace, Closer, and Best Position Player.
That’s a lot to lose.
There were complete disappointments, like David Carpenter (trade for Manny Banuelos) who was brought in to be a key righty out of the pen, and failed totally, but for the most part, much of the roster was half and half … as up and down as the team itself.
Tanaka had some vintage performances where he reminded you of 2014 pre-UCL, when he started his mlb career at 11-1, 1.99 era, but other starts where he gave up 3 Home Runs and could not hold a 6-0 lead. Certainly an up and down first half, with a visit to the DL in the middle.
Michael Pineda has also had dominant starts like his Mother’s Day gem where he went 7 innings vs. the O’s Striking Out 16 /0 BB, and his outing vs. the Marlins where he took a no hitter into the 7th. There have been more ups than downs for Pineda, but there have been outings where he didn’t have his Slider and got hit hard, most memorably giving up 8 earned to the last place Phillies.
Eovaldi has been inconsistent and benefited from strong run support during his starts, and needs to prove he can throw his secondary/ off speed pitches with confidence and consistency in big spots. His fast ball is plus-plus for certain, but he can’t live by that alone.
CC Sabathia continues to try to reinvent himself into a crafty lefty, but one thing is for certain, he is no longer a top-of-the-rotation Starter.
Headley has made some sparkling plays defensively at 3rd Base, but inexplicably has made 16 errors, which is more than he has made in any full season of his career.
Gregorius is second on the team with 9 errors and got off to a shaky start not only with his glove but bat also. He has shown real improvement on both sides of the ball lately but still lacks at times when it comes to the mental part of the game.
Drew has put up good Home Run numbers and his defense is solid, but his batting average is a cringe-worthy .178
Garret Jones has had some big hits in big spots, but he got off to a slow start and his defense in RF, LF, and 1st Base is simply sub-par.
2nd HALF ANALYSIS :
My pre-season analysis as far as strengths and weaknesses of the team were for the most part right on point.
I predicted the strength of the team would be the bullpen.
I thought the home run production would be up considerably (107 HRs /3rd AL),
but that the offense would still be very dependent on the long ball, and not situational enough. They are 7th in the AL in batting average (.254) and all season long it feels like …if they
don’t hit multiple home runs , they don’t win.
My biggest concern was the starting rotation. Tanaka, Pineda, CC, and Nova each had not only health issues, but if they were fortunate enough to stay off the DL would have innings limits to contend with also.
As far as surprises, there have been a few, most notably A-Rod putting up very solid first half numbers. I thought he would be on the DL by now but he has benefited by the role of everyday DH. It has kept him fresh and injury free.
The amount of team errors (57), especially led by Chase Headley is another surprise
There are many areas they can improve upon and tighten up, but the thing that will make or break the season will be the starting pitching. The team ERA is ranked 10th out of 15 in the AL with a 4.01 ERA, but that includes the bullpen which statistically helps..
The Yankee starters ERA is ranked 12th out of 15 which is nothing to write home about . Therefore they have to not only stay healthy but need to improve and be more consistent, but also need to manage and limit their total innings,
yet do it without burning out the bullpen. This is a tall order, but at the same time, something that if they looked at the situation realistically in the off season would have realized.
If a starter goes on the DL (and my guess would be Tanaka) then things become more challenging. Does Brian Cashman trade for Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto ?
I don’t think he will trade Severino or Judge (nor would I). The question would be, can he bring back a top of the rotation starter (even a rental) without giving up either of the top two prospects?
Hopefully he can, but If not, the decision then becomes, should they pull Warren from the pen again and put him back into the rotation?
Although Warren had the lowest ERA of the starters when he was in the rotation, they now would run the risk in my opinion of having him not stretched out enough and because of it,
face possible injury (remember when they stretched out Joba on the major league level?)
For that reason, I would leave Warren in the pen. Calling up Severino should be the option at that point if he is still pitching effectively for the Railriders.
If a position was upgraded, it would be 2nd Base. Drew’s .178 BA is literally the worst average in the majors (all qualifying hitters)
Rob Refsnyder would be a consideration, but he has 13 errors, and you don’t want to compromise when it comes to defense,
so the upgrade would probably need to come by a trade.
BOTTOM LINE :
The Yankees have flaws like every other team, but definitely can win the AL East going away.
Their Offense is too dependent on the long ball, but that is a bigger concern for the post season than the regular season.
The schedule is favorable in the 2nd half. No more west coast road trips and
7 more home games than road games, where they can take advantage of their lefty dominant batting order.
Their fielding has been inconsistent, but that should improve, especially in Headley’s case.
Now that Warren is the 7th inning man again, the bullpen will continue to be the team’s greatest strength.
Getting back Andrew Miller and Jacoby Ellsbury will be a tremendous boost to the pen and the line up.
The big question in my mind is the same as before the season started…can the starters stay healthy,
pitch deep into games enough to not burn out the pen and be better than 12th in AL in ERA ?
Will the Yankees make a trade for pitching ? Will they call up Severino?
Whatever they decide, the bottom line is ..
The Yankees will go as far as their starting rotation takes them.
As always,
GO NYY !!
