Luis Severino lived up to the hype in 2015 when he was brought up from Triple A in August.
He pitched to a 2.89 era and a 5-3 record as a 21 year old. His confidence and composure, which
was well beyond his years, was backed up by his electric stuff.
To say that Severino has unexpectedly struggled this year would be an understatement.
This season he is 0-6 with a 7.46 era (highest of any AL starter w/ qualifying innings)
His latest outing was a nightmare (on Friday the 13th of course) that ended
with Severino walking off the mound trailing 7-1 after only 2 2/3 innings,
and to add injury to insult, he was joined by team trainer Steve Donohue.
An MRI revealed a mild right triceps strain (and a bruised ego ), landing
him on the 15 day Disabled List.
The plan is … for Severino to rest, not pick up a baseball for 7 days, and
then make a minor league start.
The question is … what happened, and how do we fix the problem ??
Joe Girardi said after Friday night’s game – ” He’s throwing strikes,
but not locating his strikes where he needs to locate them. To me
that’s first and foremost what we have to get ironed out “.
I disagree Joe.
To me, the first and foremost thing to iron out is Severino’s CHANGE UP .
IMO : Luis Severino needs to throw his Change Up with less velocity.
Here’s why :
When Severino was a minor league prospect, the scouting reports
graded his Fast Ball and his Change Up as plus pitches.
Both pitches were projected to be above MLB average, with his Slider
( his third best pitch) graded promising but below MLB average.
In 2014 Severino’s minor league Fast Ball velocity was between 93-95, while topping
out at 98 mph. This is very consistent with what we saw in 2015 when Luis
showed so much promise on the major league level with the Yankees.
Here’s the interesting and frustrating part of his regression in 2016.
His velocity on the Fast Ball is still 93-95 with the ability to dial it up to 98 mph,
but his Change Up that he threw in the minors at 83-85 mph, he is now throwing
at an average speed of 89 mph. (when he throws it at all).
The variation in velocity between the Change & Fast Ball is not nearly enough.
More importantly when he threw the Change at a lower velocity it had sinking
action. This late movement made the pitch difficult to hit, and when contact was made,
batters would pound it into the ground. (At 89 mph the pitch comes in straight, with no movement)
During the YES broadcast, Paul O’Neill (who does a great job) mentioned how
important he thought it was to develop a Change to go along with the FB & Slider.
Actually that’s not correct. Severino doesn’t need to develop his Change, he needs to find the pitch
scouts once evaluated as a plus pitch, and somehow has lost it.
What I’m pointing out is actually good news. It is easier to find something you
once mastered, than to develop something you never possessed.
BTW – Severino’s mound opponent on Friday was Chris Sale 8-0 / 1.67 era
Chris’ slowest off-speed pitch that night was 79 mph (complete game 1R, 6H)
The Yankees coaching staff and management group need to realize …
Luis Severino must throw his Change Up with less velocity.
If they don’t … Luis will continue to struggle and try to over-throw his
fastball, which will lead to arm trouble.
If they do get him to find the feel again for his Change Up ,
(here comes the great news) Severino will be nearly un-hittable.
If I were Cashman / Girardi / Rothschild , I would make the message
very positive and direct.
We still have 1,000% confidence that you are the future Ace of the
staff, but we will not let you pitch again for the NY Yankees until
you find your old Change Up and throw it at 83-85 mph.
In this case … LESS IS MORE.
